India is among the top 10 most powerful countries in the world. In a first-of-its-kind study of "national power" a group of eminent strategic experts and scholars have placed India at the eighth position among a group of 27 most powerful countries in the world.
The study, conducted by the New Delhi-based Foundation for National Security Research (FSNR), judged "national power" by various indices, including energy security, population, technological capability etc. An interesting index of national power was judged by "foreign affairs capability", which includes self-reliance in defence, membership of multilateral groupings, role in global rule-making and soft power. Interestingly, though China comes out as the second most powerful nation in the world after the US, Chinese foreign affairs' capability is comparable to India's, even though in terms of total power New Delhi comes way below Beijing.
Professor Satish Kumar, introducing the study, said, "The Group of Experts evolved a criterion consisting of the following elements for the selection of countries which could be regarded as actually or potentially the most powerful: (i) Population above 50 million; (ii) GDP above US$ 500 billion; and (iii) defence expenditure above US$ 5 billion." The effort, he said, was to have an Indian assessment of indices of power.
The US is by far the world's most powerful nation, several notches ahead of its nearest competitor, China. The study observes, "China is still much lower than the US in energy security, technological capability and foreign affairs capability. Even in economic and military fields, the indexed value of China's capabilities is much lower than that of US. Therefore, any notion that China will pose a threat to the supremacy of the US in the near future has to be tempered with caution."
How powerful is India as a state? And how does India stack up against the most powerful states in the world?
According to the study, "India's economic capability stands at the eighth position and military capability at the seventh position. In technological capability, it ranks low, at the 17th position, and in energy security still lower at 20th position." Despite boasting a formidable array of foreign policy experts, the study found that in foreign affairs capability, India holds the 11th position and has a long way to go "(to) be able to discharge responsibilities commensurate with its large size and geopolitical importance."
India ranks very low in "military equipment, power projection, cyber and space security, as well as in its capability pertaining to doctrinal issues. Again, with regard to technological capability, particularly in the area of control over critical technology, India ranks extremely low."
The study gives India high marks for population capabilities, but does not specify that the nation's so-called "demographic dividend" could turn out to be a liability if India does not invest in its people. In the "manpower index" China scores much higher than India — 100 to India's 87.5 — while on the equipment index, India scores a pathetic 50. China scores a full 100 on being able to create an educated labour force, while India stands at 16. Certainly by this measure, India's position as one of the more powerful countries can be contested.
On deterrence and power projection, China scores 75, while India stands way behind at 60. China also invests a lot more than India on "strategic and doctrinal orientation", lending credence to the general criticism against India for a lack of strategic culture
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